Technology
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I’m curious about the development of artificial intelligence in the future, and I’m looking forward to seeing what GPT-5 can do. If it’s a huge leap forward, then I will agree that the future will be very different from what we have now. But if it’s only a slight improvement, like Llama 1 vs Llama 2, then large language models (LLMs) might face the same challenges as self-driving cars. They are somewhat functional, but not reliable enough to let you sleep on your commute, and they won’t be for a long time.
It might be impossible to eliminate all the hallucinations from LLMs, but if the next versions are incredibly useful, then we will learn to live with them. For example, currently 30% of chips fail on a wafer, but we still produce more CPUs and they are groundbreaking technology. But even GPT4+ will have a significant impact on our future, especially in education. Every kid will have an AI in their phone that is ready to answer all their questions with minimal effort. This will greatly enhance the intelligence of future generations and make education accessible to almost everyone on earth at a similar high level. But this will not make us all lose our jobs in 10 years.
I think you're too much optimistic about the impact on education: Every kid will have an AI in their phone, and instead of thinking by themselves when they'll have a question they will just ask the AI and forget the answer quickly because they just have to ask again. However I would be happy to be wrong.
You're 100% right, with easily accessible technology people don't retain the skills that are supplemented by that technology.
As a kid growing up with the advent of computers it was all jank, you had to know how to fix and diagnose both hardware and software issues, but you still learned to do it with limited resources and (in my case) even very limited English knowledge. I had, in fact, learned English mostly because of my interest in computers and games, and I learned programming also because of my interest in games...
I was thinking that "oh wow the new generation will have it so easy, they will grow up with reliable and easier to use PCs, they'll know even more than me and be so good with it!" and it's the exact opposite. Because it's so user-friendly and readily available they don't need to learn to fix anything, they can just buy it. They don't need any skills that are deeper than basic usage. And that's how you get kids today who don't even know how to turn on a PC, let alone use a word or table processor - because they have iPhones and iPads and never needed anything else, they never found it groundbreaking or useful.
So yeah, not only will they be less knowledgeable, they won't even bother thinking or checking the answers, because the AI will be right most of the time. I'm actually kinda worried that this will make people really easily manipulable.
Around where I live people, media and politicians have been talking about "diginative" generation for years. The generation that will have no problem adapting to ever digitizing worklife. But lately the reality has creeped in even in media, these young adults are having difficult time adapting to the software and hardware used by the corporate world. The devices and apps they grew up using are so dumbed down and strictly guided that they are lost with the amount of options and processes supported by the professional applications.
The ease-of-use of consumer apps is counterproductive on that regard. Being able to use them is as valuable to businesses as being able to put a square block through the square hole and triangle block through the triangle hole. It's essentially worthless as nearly every single human can do it, it's designed to be just so easy and streamlined.
But maybe business world is wrong and should adapt instead? Maybe they should also concentrate on making their processes as streamlined? Maybe generative AI could help with that? Who knows. In my opinion the problem isn't in the "physical" processes, those are often in the end just mundane tasks, but in the mental processes that the dumbed down apps kids grow up using do not feed. They often give you one way to go through a use case and that's it. No outside of the box thinking, no evaluation of options and requirements.