this post was submitted on 01 Sep 2023
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[–] [email protected] 0 points 10 months ago (5 children)

I'm really curious why Biden thinks a negotiated end is likely. The situation looks really bad for Russia from where I'm sitting, and if that doesn't change how would a negotiation work? The Americans have awesome intelligence on Russia, but they also have nuclear fears that might lead upper leadership to do some wishful thinking.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Ukraine has been in war economy mode for over a year now, and it's not sustainable long term while all of the sanctions on Russia haven't crippled their economy to the point of being unable to continue fighting. Their ability to fight Russia is largely dependent on continued western aid, largely from the US, which has become increasingly controversial politically. The current counteroffensive has been a slow, long grind without much in the way of territorial gain so far, further decreasing popular support for Ukraine in the west. If Russian sympathizers in the US government manage to block aid to Ukraine before they are able to break Russia's defenses, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will run out of funding and equipment and be forced to negotiate best case scenario, or be overrun by the Russians worst case scenario. It is still a long time until the next US election so they should still fight, but unless they're able to make dramatic gains like they did previously, Ukraine may have to negotiate eventually

[–] [email protected] 1 points 10 months ago

In the US it's controversial in the sense that there's 40% of the stakeholders that want to stop, and 60% that wouldn't dream of it. Just "controversial" makes it sound like there's wide-ranging debate. As far as I know the rest of the West is still onboard too, and they're not a negligible source of aid, just somewhat smaller than the US.

It would be a big blow to lose the US, though, you're right about that.

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