this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2023
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I know it is a popular sentiment that people should migrate to Mastodon, but I personally think people will migrate wherever the people they follow migrate to.
With this in mind, I suspect Bluesky will be the platform to usurp Twitter; but with Twitter chasing off all their users in the near future, it may go to whichever platform is readily open at the time.
I'm very curious to see if Bluesky or Spill open up when Twitter closes the door on its users. If not, Mastodon may have a shot at being the next large platform...
Why Bluesky when there is ecosystem of dozens community-baked and deployed apps?
@smileyhead
This thread talks about some of the reasons https://mstdn.party/@gwensnyder/111088343873242234
@UrLogicFails
Governments switching away from Twitter won't suddenly switch to bluesky after already having set up mastodon, and overall similar incentives (mostly the control that comes with self-hosting) exist for corporations though those don't have an incentive to be early adaptors.
Sure there's always going to be a baseline presence of those types of users on basically all platforms having any kind of general reach precisely for general communication but if you are an architect and want to follow the building code department of the ministry of -- who the fuck is responsible for that? dunno, in any case, no you won't do that on bluesky. Why would they want to get burned twice by a platform when some state IT department somewhere runs software they can use for the purpose.