this post was submitted on 16 May 2024
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While my threat model is not universal, it comes close, at least for the average user which OP seems to be from their question. In practice, there is very little unencrypted traffic these days and in the case of that traffic you will have to ask yourself if your (commercial) VPN provider is more trustworthy than your ISP.
If you need to ask if you need a VPN there's a 99% chance that you don't. There are certainly a few use cases for both commercial VPNs and TOR (see my other comment) but to even be aware that those apply to you, you probably already have enough technical knowledge to approach the question from the direction "I want to do XYZ, how can I be more secure?" and not "I've heard of VPNs, do I need one?"
My national government has no business knowing which protocols I use to contact which endpoints and tamper with that traffic. Wrapping up that information in a tunnel is a good first protection layer.
If you're using a commercial VPN from a provider who can legally operate in your country, your national government can just as easily get that information from them as from your ISP.
How would a national government (not TLAs) target particular individuals in a large number of users and what information can they gather given e.g. https://mullvad.net/en/help/no-logging-data-policy ? So perhaps not quite as easily as ordering a tap.