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Heat pumps twice as efficient as fossil fuel systems in cold weather, study finds
(www.theguardian.com)
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Get a heat pump with resistive (electric) defrosting, not one that defrosts by running like an AC.
This kills your COP, making it inefficient.
But only for the 4 weeks a year you spend in unusually cold weather, the other 48 it's more efficient.
It's not like truly arctic places are a reasonable application but the overwhelming majority of our population lives south of Quebec and north of Wellington. So it's not a relevant point, everyone in the Arctic can just use resistive heating or burn fuel, and if we get everything else on heat pumps we reduce our enegy use by a factor of 2-3 regardles.
Right. It depends on your climate.
Sure, for a few days a year it might get as bad as resistive heating. How horrible! So you don't get 3.2x total throughout the year, you get 3.1x. It's a non-issue.