this post was submitted on 10 Apr 2024
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Technology
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Damn imagine paying to read an article to confirm your biases. If you're going to claim something is a bubble you need to claim something more specific than "AI".
The entire early modern web was a bubble in the early 00s and it's still here. There's not even many large companies yet to even start being bubbly. An actual AI bubble could be 10 years off.
I just love how so many educated and intelligent people can get stuck in knee jerk reactionary takes because some admittedly large aspects of a new technology (LLMs) are annoying as hell.
A point the article makes rather well is that something is not a bobble because it doesn’t work, but because the investment going into it is fundamentally irrational in scale. The web still existing has nothing to do if investment or companies tripping over themselves to advertise as a dotcom in the dotcom bobble was rational, percicly because it clearly wasn’t dispite the web being a fundamentally revolutionary tech.
The question when it comes to LLM’s, the near exclusive subject of the marketing around AI, is if bunch of random companies paying for a mildly improved chat bot are actually going to generate enough profit once the marketing hype has worn off and the legal challenges settled to justify the current massive scale of investment, or if instead once the project managers and CEO’s have moved on to the next buzzword to attract investors LLM’s will become a tight market where providers struggle to turn a large enough profit to satisfy investors.
There is a free link in the comments, and your concerns are addressed in the first 3 paragraphs.
This bubble is quite bubbly. There is an AI company for anything and everything now. The market is almost fully saturated with "AI" everything.
Just like the web bubble, all of the intsta-AI shops need to fail so the real tech can grow. AI is never going to go away, but most of the scam companies will fail in due time.
We might have one big consolidation, or several. The hype will die and the quick money will disappear. It's the same story, every time. One the magic AI box stops shitting out dollar bills, we should be good.