this post was submitted on 27 Aug 2023
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I think it's extremely unlikely that he's not dead. If Prigozhin were to surface elsewhere in the world (e.g. Africa), Putin would be even more of a laughing stock. Putin simply wouldn't risk anything less than absolute certainty.
However, I doubt that Prigozhin was alive when the plane took off; most likely Utkin and Chekalov were dead as well. Best guess is that the three were killed the night before.
Personally, this is where my own Occam's Razor points to. I find the whole thing to be rather like a circus, the death is being shown off to the world. It makes no sense that the plane would be going where it was and it makes no sense that Putin would confirm a death that didn't happen, so death-faking also seems off the books.
Out of all possibilities, the "plane didn't even have the corpse, but Prigoman is already a corpse somewhere no one will ever find it" makes the most sense. Perhaps a plane about to be shot down IS the best place to leave it if the goal is no one finding it, but why leave it to chance? Incinerate the corpse and spread the ashes, and then you can do whatever theatrics you want.