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Probably exactly what has been reported. Putin waited for things to settle, weakened Wagner troops by taking their weapons and splitting their numbers, then they killed leadership. Occam's razor certainly points to this.
But, of course, the way it was done certainly leaves the door open for conspiracies.
Even if he's not dead, his mercenaries believe that he is. If they're getting paid, they'll do what leadership tells them. If not, they won't. Simple as, he's not an elected leader, his death just means his company has shit to figure out, but his non-death means shit will keep going as it was.
Wagner is not a PMC and wagnerites not real mercenaries. Most of them are ultra-nationalists and that's their primary motivation to fight. There are some weird Nazi/cult elements. Prigozhin has built up that cult, he's not easily replaceable.
Not necessarily. The mercenaries are spreading a lot of these conspiracies through Telegram. I don’t have polling available, so idk how many of them think he’s alive.
I think it's extremely unlikely that he's not dead. If Prigozhin were to surface elsewhere in the world (e.g. Africa), Putin would be even more of a laughing stock. Putin simply wouldn't risk anything less than absolute certainty.
However, I doubt that Prigozhin was alive when the plane took off; most likely Utkin and Chekalov were dead as well. Best guess is that the three were killed the night before.
I doubt that Prighozin was alive when the plane took off
Personally, this is where my own Occam's Razor points to. I find the whole thing to be rather like a circus, the death is being shown off to the world. It makes no sense that the plane would be going where it was and it makes no sense that Putin would confirm a death that didn't happen, so death-faking also seems off the books.
Out of all possibilities, the "plane didn't even have the corpse, but Prigoman is already a corpse somewhere no one will ever find it" makes the most sense. Perhaps a plane about to be shot down IS the best place to leave it if the goal is no one finding it, but why leave it to chance? Incinerate the corpse and spread the ashes, and then you can do whatever theatrics you want.
This is a guy who humiliated Putin 2 month ago with his protest (attempted coup ? ) to Moscow. Considering how Putin treats his opponent it's crazy that he survived that long.
yes it could be a body double and he is hiding on the same island as Elvis, but let's believe the simplest hypothesis
I was listening to a Russia expert on the radio this week. He was explaining that he was well liked among the oligarchs, oligarchs who are currently pissed at Putin cause they're being tethered by this war, they've lost their holiday homes abroad, they can't spend the summer in Monaco on their yachts, their businesses can't even operate really, they're the ones who can actually influence anything there, so killing Prigozhin outright would be a slap in the face to those people.
He had to put doubt in there that it wasn't an execution to prevent a full revolt, but even so the revolt might happen.
The KGB killed the motherfucker.
I think he’s dead. But I didn’t know about the body double thing. The thing is, all of Wagner leadership getting on a plane together and flying over Russia seems so, pardon me, idiotic. So idiotic that now I know about the body doubles I am questioning the whole situation now.
We are assuming they were alive when the plane lifted off.
Putin had him killed. Prigozhin probably thought he was safe for some reason, but Putin took the first good chance he got to take him out. To me that's the likeliest option. It is theoretically possible the whole thing was a stunt of some sort, but I don't believe it.
He was also a liability for Putin. The guy wouldn't take 2 months of vacation in Belarus, I doubt he would manage to stay hidden with a fake identity.
Probably got murdered.
British royal family: There's a reason you'll never find more than one of us on a plane at the same time.
Russian officials: Hold my vodka!
I am really surprised, almost flabbergasted, that apparently nobody has made an AI fake video of him claiming that he's still alive.
Doesn't matter. Accident or intentional or a fabrication, they are going to roll with it and use it to their best advantage, like they intended this all along
Perun hae some ideas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va3UtYl6PUs
Putin's people got to him somehow, it was inevitable.
Two body doubles would have been needed, the #2 in command was also onboard. I think he's really dead.
This guy has a good explanation https://mastodon.social/users/ChrisO_wiki/statuses/110962681044644179
I think he got scared and figured making his death seem as real as possible was a better alternative than not. The best way to run from your enemy is to make him think he already killed you, because then they stop looking. He wasn't a stupid man and was known to be so paranoid he had all those body doubles and stuff like you said. It wouldn't surprise me if he got unalived but IMO he wanted out from under Putins gaze.