SeborrheicDermatitis

IIRC Ukraine still controlled part of the T0504 highway within the city at their worst point and since then they've taken back a couple of blocks.

Yeah western intelligence didn't want Ukraine to die on the hill of Bakhmut (figuratively), Ukrainian leadership chose it for symbolic/domestic reasons rather than strategic. They never did take the whole city though and have since fallen back a bit, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive managing to take a few blocks back. Not too much, though. Ofc Russia has had the gradual advantage in Bakhmut for most of the last year but it was a grinding, incredibly slow, incredibly damaging battle for both sides. It was perhaps unwise for the Ukrainian leadership to make that move, though.

Sorry, I meant Zaporizhzhia. I am pretty muddle-brained atm as I have my increased anxiety meds dose recently.

I'm very confident the parts of Ukraine that have been trying to leave since 2014 mostly want to leave. I know ethnic Russians and Russian speakers are most heavily concentrated in the east, not just in the pre-war separatist regions but surrounding them, too. I'm sure war breaking out caused a lot of people who were on the fence to pick a side, and I can imagine someone who speaks Russian at home but wasn't radical enough to be part of a pre-war separatist movement throwing in with the much stronger country, that speaks their language, that doesn't have troops running around with neo-Nazi patches and flags.

Certainly some did, especially in the Donbass regions, but AFAIK never as much in Zaporizhzhia or Kherson-there is significant data to show that, while obviously Eastern Ukrainians have had a difficult relationship w/ the central government, they still opposed the Russian invasion and supported defence efforts.

What I've seen is breakdowns of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, which are predominantly in the east. I've also seen pre-war election results that show these eastern regions disagree with western Ukraine on national politics.

Yes, you are right, but voting patterns show there is this polarisation between east and west Ukraine, but that does not ipso facto imply support for the Russian invasion, much less annexation into the Russian state. There is polling to suggest that even in Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and such, there was widespread opposition to the invasion and a 'rally-to-the-flag' effect had led to a temporary support in all regions (Donbass not included) for Zelensky and for the Ukrainian defence effort. As I say I can go digging for them if you'd like. I am not saying all Ukrainians hate Russian language and that there is no autonomist movements in the east, just that the data I have seen indicates widespread opposition to the invasion and annexations. However, there is a lack of data in the Donbass region so I simply do not know what people support or think in there as the L/DPRs were not democratic.

I know, I'm very #blessed.

Because modern China is not socialist and its leadership has no intention of moving in that direction (indeed, they are moving in the opposite direction, including under Xi).

China isn't about to invade Taiwan anyway. Not much strategic gain + the Chinese leadership is smarter than the Russian one.

I mean it's a pretty vacuous statement but what else do they expect? It's just them trying to please both sides, they cannot exactly make a precise potential peace arrangement without getting everyone together.

Then why did Russia fail to take Bakhmut, do you think?

Also thank you for the link. ISW has posted some bad content in the past and this helps to explain it, I think. I appreciate it.

Cheers, I'll give it a read. I genuinely appreciate it.

What evidence do you have for that? Asking genuinely not to be facetious. Crimea, yes, but the others I am not so sure. I am especially here referring to Kherson and Kharkhiv regions that were annexed as all data I have seen (I can dig some up if you'd like-do not have it to hand) indicates strong support for the Ukrainian govt against the invasion here even if they dislike the government itself.

You leave out the scenario of Russians getting kicked out of the country. Which is going to lead to Putin being sent to his Dacha, and if not and he somehow clings on Ukraine having all its territory opens NATO membership which means that the Russian general staff is going to shit bricks and rather putsch than attack.

This is unviable. The best weaponry available to Ukraine was shattered against the Russian frontline-they can barely even take a few villages, let alone Melitopol, and let alone Crimea and the rest of the country! There is no indication that Ukraine has the strength to launch successful counterattacks. In Kherson and Kharkhiv Russia retreated for tactical reasons as their positions were undefendable-this is not the case w/ the current frontlines. It is utopian thinking.

He a) wouldn't do that and b) since when is Ukraine antisemitic you're confusing it with... pretty much all other countries in that area and c) you don't need to invoke far-right fucks (who are a tiny minority btw) the rest of the country would, well, send him to a Dacha.

No, I don't thjink he would.

"Ukraine" isn't a 'real'/reified entity, what I am saying is that the far-right has disproportionate strength in the Ukrainian army (and, to an extent, the state intelligence apparatus) because of the power vaccuum created by the 2014 invasion and the collapse of the pre-existing Ukrainian Army, then in 2022 because it was the best organised forces in the areas seeing the most intense fighting. While Nazis do NOT have much support among the population, the state still has a strong strategic-structural liability to these far-right groups...largely thanks to the actions of Russia!

And ever if: At that point we'd be in the situation many predicted in the first days of the invasion: Fall of the government, but Ukrainians then fighting a partisan war. And Ukraine right now is just in way too good a position to switch to that.

Yes, I agree, which is why I don't think Zelensky will sign a peace. It is unviable.

All in all, the way forward to quick peace is clear: Help Ukraine win this thing. It's both the best option from a direct humanitarian POV by cutting the war short, as well as the best option for wider humanity and the future: Not allowing states intending to conquer to get away with such behaviour. Discouraging wars of aggression is important by itself and one of the reasons why Ukrainians fight so hard, they see the universalism in their own national struggle it just all aligns so well.

I do not see how Ukraine can win this-even with western weaponry they have failed in their counteroffensive. What else do they need? Western boots on the ground is certainly not possible.

Do you actually think the referendums were legitimate? In Crimea there likely was a majority who wanted to join Russia but even then the results were way higher than in previous polling. Plus Kherson and Kharkiv areas were and are not pro-Russian since the invasion and the referendums there were clearly falsified.

It's not a simple ethnic conflict and the majority of Russian speakers in Ukraine do not want to secede to Russia and do not support the invasion. It is harder to tell in the Donbass because of a lack of data but it is still true that Russia orchestrated the removal of independent-minded leaders for puppets from 2014-2018 or so.